Employment to increase slightly in 2010 In 2009, the Sherbrooke area was spared by the slowdown in economic activity that affected all industrialized countries. During the first six months of the year, the average number of jobs2 in the area declined by 2 per cent, with losses registered in both part-time and full-time employment. However, the situation improved somewhat from July to September, as the number of jobs rose by 1.5 per cent. While this rise was entirely attributable to the gains recorded in part-time employment, full-time job losses are moderating more and more, suggesting that increases could occur shortly. Thanks to this renewed economic activity, the Sherbrooke CMA will end the year with 83,000 jobs, or the same level as in 2008.

Labour market to weaken in 2009

Employment was particularly strong in the area in the last 10 years. During that time, the number of jobs steadily increased, with the average annual growth rate exceeding 5 per cent. In 2008, there were 52,000 more jobs in the area than in 1998. This gain was mainly due to a job-generating economy, which made Gatineau the most dynamic CMA in Quebec. However, the area was not spared by the prevailing global economic conditions. Many Gatineau workers have already felt the effects, as job losses have been accumulating since July 2008. The unemployment rate, which was below 5 per cent in 2008, started to grow rapidly at the beginning of 2009 and reached 5.6 per cent in April. Over the past 12 months (from April 2008 to April 2009), close to 8,200 jobs have disappeared.

Migration still positive in the area

Despite the economic slowdown, the Gatineau area posted a fairly strong performance compared to other areas across Quebec, which will ultimately allow it to retain more people. Net migration has been positive since 1991 and will remain so this year and in 2010. According to the preliminary figures for 2008, there were 2,200 more in-migrants than out-migrants, and this surplus is expected to be maintained at around 1,900 people in 2009 and 2,000 people in 2010. Newcomers will arrive mainly from elsewhere in Quebec and other countries. Of course, the Gatineau area will attract people from other provinces, particularly Ontario, but will see as many individuals leave. At the beginning of the decade, many Ontarians were crossing the Ottawa River, but the wave has lost some momentum since 2006, even with the growing gap between the average home prices in Ottawa and Gatineau, which has now reached $95,000.

Mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout 2009, remaining within 25-75 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will increase very gradually during the course of 2010, reflecting a rise in government of Canada bond yields. For 2010, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 4.75-6.00 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 5.00-6.75 per cent range.

Resale market activity to decrease slightly in 2009 and 2010

Like the new home market, the resale market will record a slight decrease in 2009. Following a 10-per-cent reduction in sales registered through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in 2008, transactions are expected to decrease by 9.5 per cent this year, before stabilizing in 2010. In terms of sales, close to 4,000 properties are forecast to be sold in 2009, or 400 fewer than in 2008. While relatively low interest rates are encouraging some people to borrow, several factors will have a cooling effect on consumers: the current home prices, the global economic slowdown and the uncertainty it brings, the difficulties experienced by some industries and the job losses in the area. Sales will therefore fall this year.

Canadian Funding Corporation cites that after exceeding 11,000 units for five successive years from 2002 to 2007, total housing starts across the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) declined by nearly 56 per cent in 2008. Housing starts across Metro are forecast to decline by 51 per cent this year to 3,250 units. Last year, single-detached house builders bore the brunt of the downturn as the industry struggled to contain the rise in spec home inventories. In contrast, most of the decline this year will occur in multi-family where inventories continue to mount. A weakened economy impacted by job losses, rising unemployment and slower immigration will account for the continued downward adjustment this year. In 2010, a gradual turnaround in the economy of the Capital region will result in a 26 per cent improvement in housing starts to 4,100 units.

However, next year’s output will represent less than 40 per cent of homes built on average during the 1999 to 2008 period which represents the strongest decade for housing starts on record across Greater Edmonton. Stronger economic growth, higher gains from migration, and a return to balanced conditions in the resale and new home markets will be needed prior to total annual starts rebounding to the longer term average of between 6,000 to 7,000 units.

Single-Detached Starts to Improve in 2010

Single-detached home builders across Metro Edmonton started 2,613 units in 2008, representing a 66 per cent drop from the previous year and the weakest performance since 1995. Activity to the end of March suggests that 2009′s production will fail to match 2008. Nonetheless, downward trends in the new home inventory combined with the lowest number of units under construction in March since 2002 sets the table for a modest turnaround at some point in 2009. CMHC’s view is that year-over-year improvements will occur during the second half 2009 but will not arrive in time to lift this year’s numbers above 2008 levels. Single starts in 2009 will decline another 24 per cent to 2,000 units before improving to near the 2,600 unit mark in 2010. While representing a healthy 30 per cent gain over the current year, 2010′s outlook represents about one-third the number of homes started annually between 1999 and 2008.

The turning point in single starts should occur this year provided certain conditions are in place. Total supply, which is units in inventory plus those under construction, began to decline in the first quarter of 2008 and continues to move lower in 2009 due to the major slowdown in construction that began in earnest in the fall of 2007. New house inventory stood at a record level in August 2008 but has generally been receding since then. These trends will need to be sustained in the coming months so that house builders feel confident this fall that inventory replenishment is justified to prepare them for the important spring selling season.

Economic Growth Returns in 2010

The downturn in the energy sector will impact growth across the Capital region this year and into 2010. Edmonton remains Alberta’s fore- most supply, service and staging area for the energy sector. With a substantial number of drilling rigs expected to sit idle this year, the impacts of this slowdown will be widespread. Lower global oil prices will reduce the output from the manufacturing sector, particularly the area’s petroleum upgraders and refineries. The construction sector will also be held back by low levels of residential activity and a slowdown in
non-residential activity as well. A number of large-scale energy-related projects slated for the Alberta Industrial Heartland area have been scaled back or put on hold until the business climate improves.

The definitions of types of dwellings, used in the Surveys, are in accordance with those in the Census.

A “single-detached” dwelling is a building containing only one dwelling unit, which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure.

A “semi-detached” dwelling is one of two dwellings located side-by-side in a building, adjoining no other structure and separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof.

A “row” dwelling is a ground-oriented dwelling attached to two or more similar units so that the resulting row structure contains three or more units.

An “apartment and other” dwelling includes all dwellings other than those described above, including structures commonly referred to as duplexes, triplexes, double duplexes and row duplexes.

Other Census Definitions:

Census metropolitan area (CMA) and census agglomeration (CA) – 2006 Census

The general concept of these standard units is one of an urban core, and the adjacent urban and rural areas that have a high degree of social and economic integration with that urban core, as measured by commuting flows derived from Census of Population data on place of work.

Census metropolitan area (CMA)

To form a census metropolitan area (CMA), the urban core must have a population of at least 50,000 and the area (CMA) must have a population of at least 100,000. Once an area becomes a CMA, it is retained as a CMA even if the population of its urban core declines below 50,000.

Census agglomeration (CA)

To form a census agglomeration (CA), the urban core must have a population of at least 10,000. If the population of the urban core of a CA declines below 10,000, the CA is retired.

As of March 2003, CAs are no longer required to have an urban core population count of 100,000 to be promoted to the status of a CMA. Instead, CAs will assume the status of a CMA if they have attained a total population of at least 100,000 and an urban core of 50,000 or more.

Census subdivision (CSD) – 2006 Census

Census subdivision is a general term for municipalities as determined by provincial or territorial
legislation, or areas treated as municipal equivalents for statistical purposes. Municipalities are units of  local government.

Housing Start Volume

• Volume A: Starts, Completions, and Under Construction (Canada, Provincial, CMA and Large CA levels)
• Volume B: Seasonally-Adjusted Starts (Canada and Provincial)
• Volume C: Quarterly Starts, Completions, and Under Construction (Canada and Provincial) (Available at end of Quarter)
• Volume D: Apartment Starts and Completions (Canada, Provincial, CMA and Large CA)
• Volume E: Starts and Completions by Intended Market (Canada and Provincial)
• Volume F: Starts and Completions by Intended Market (CMA and Large CA)
• Volume H: Starts, Completions, and Under Construction (Census Subdivision)
• Volume I: Market Absorption Statistics (Canada, Provincial, CMA and Large CA)
• Volume J: Market Absorption Statistics (Census Subdivision)

Symbols / Signes conventionnels

**     Not available / Non disponible
***    Infinity / Indéfini
+      Less than 1,000 units / Moins de 1 000 unités
-      Nil or Zero / Néant ou zéro
–     Amount too small to be expressed / Chiffre trop petit pour être indiqué
(r)    Revised / Chiffres révisés

Geographical Abbreviations

AR  Agglomération de recensement
C   City / Cité
CY  City
CÉ  Cité
CA  Census Agglomeration
Com Community
CM  County (municipality)
CN  Crown Colony/Colonie de la couronne
CMA Census Metropolitan Area
CT  Canton (municipalité de)
CU  Cantons unis (municipalité de)
DM  District municipality
HAM Hamlet
IM  Island Municipality
LGD Local Government District
LOT Township and Royalty
M   Municipality/Municipalité
MÉ  Municipalité
MD  Municipal district