Employment to increase slightly in 2010 In 2009, the Sherbrooke area was spared by the slowdown in economic activity that affected all industrialized countries. During the first six months of the year, the average number of jobs2 in the area declined by 2 per cent, with losses registered in both part-time and full-time employment. However, the situation improved somewhat from July to September, as the number of jobs rose by 1.5 per cent. While this rise was entirely attributable to the gains recorded in part-time employment, full-time job losses are moderating more and more, suggesting that increases could occur shortly. Thanks to this renewed economic activity, the Sherbrooke CMA will end the year with 83,000 jobs, or the same level as in 2008.

By Ozzie Jurock

Received tons of email … Not all favorable. Some people wish to bet me money – some a case of beer, that real estate is going to go down … just wait and see. Likely they are all the people who never bought anything. If you go to http://www.realestatetalks.com/ you can see some 16,000 people arguing for more than 14 years the ups and downs of Vancouver real estate. It is always the same guys and gals that argue collapse and (yep) often the same that argue that eventually we will always be higher (because of monetary expansion creating it).

So, take it easy. If you had listened to the experts who were dispensing the best advice available 20 years ago and locked yourself and your wealth into a plan which guaranteed to remit the then prevailing ‘safe amount’ of an income stream of $500 per month (a lot back then – pocket-change today) for the rest of your life, imagine the desperate poverty that you would retire to today. Stone soup would be a luxury.

Yes, we need more money now but who knows what this money will be worth tomorrow. Yes, we need more income, but who can possibly know the state of the world three months from now … much less 20 years from now? Nobody knows for sure the ‘what and where’ of interest rates and inflation rates and the value of money. It’s just not possible.

What we do know is that the safety that was inherent in the projected big income of 20 years ago is a pitiful joke today.

Yep, forecasting is never easy – particularly when it’s about the future. Crystal balls crack, vaunted talk-show soothsayers wither and drop off the television scene and the books that were treasure maps wind up in the remainder bin at the bookstore. In the last three decades stock markets have surged up and crashed down. Certain mutual funds that looked like they were blue chips sprang leaks and sank while others soared like rockets only to burn out and fall back down.

Through all of this the average folk watched their savings chewed away by insidious inflation.

However, in all the turmoil of this sound and fury, one asset has weathered the changes. Three decades ago, had you bought good quality real estate you would not be concerned about your future today. That real estate would have kept up with inflation, remained secure in value, and steadily appreciated. Sure, there would have been some temporary dips. There has to be because real estate is cyclical in nature. But one thing is certain – over the years, the base values have been steadily increasing. Back to that purchase 30 years ago – today it would be paid off and clear title – which means either a mortgage-free home (no more monthly ‘rent’ payments to the bank) and/or a steady rental income courtesy of your tenants.

Put into perspective, if you place a good portion of your assets into real estate today, you won’t have to worry about tomorrow. It doesn’t matter how wild or turbulent the economy or the marketplace. It’s like riding a horse with one spur – if half the horse goes, the other half has to go along with it. No matter how deep or tempestuous the water, you’re going to be floating on top of it.

Let’s review something all of us already know. The Chinese have used real estate holdings for wealth creation for 2,000 years. All huge fortunes were either started or extended with real estate. Home ownership (the most common form of real estate holding) has been the single largest factor in the accumulation of wealth for the average North American, firstly because of straight appreciation due to inflation, secondly, due to the leverage involved and thirdly real estate has a use and therefore always a value.

This basic principle of appreciation holds true for pretty well any healthy major urban center. Let’s take Vancouver, B.C. for an example.

In 1960 the average Vancouver home sold for $13,105. Thirty-eight years later in 1998 the average sale price was some $310,000. Almost a 2,300 per cent return. But in March 2008 the average sale price was $895,000. Almost a 6,830 per cent return. That’s on the price. Play with the return on down payment of $655 and you get tens of thousands per cent returns
If this kind of appreciation is going to continue, you have to be on the conveyor belt. If you’re not, you’re going to be left so far behind that it will be financially disastrous. And here we’re only talking from the perspective of a place to live. This isn’t even addressing the investment aspect of those monies outside the family home.

When you combine appreciation with leverage, you unlock the great secret of achieving the optimum result with real estate investment. And as you can see from the foregoing numbers, the ‘lever’ can lift you up or the ‘appreciation’, if you’re on the wrong side, can crush you down.
When your gain is measured on the capital invested, not the actual price of the property, some really astounding results come into focus. But the game is not as simple as it used to be. The goal posts move. The only constant is that everything is always changing. The secret of surviving and prospering is the ability to adapt to the changes.

The 1980s were very forgiving for the amateur. Benign with a capital ‘B’. That ‘B’ could also represent ‘Bucks’ and ‘Brainless’. Back then if you had a few dollars you could buy any piece of real estate, anywhere, and you would make money. Even if you could barely hear thunder and see lightning, it was almost impossible to make a big enough mistake. If you paid too much, it only meant that you had bought a little too soon. The clock and the calendar made you into a financial wizard. Thanks to inflation, prices soon caught up to you and bailed you out.
Still, there were lots of people in the early 1980s who managed to lose all their money in real estate. Those were the people who put their money into the wrong syndications, limited partnerships or real estate investment trusts. But we’ll talk more about that later. In the late eighties fortunes were made.

But after the 1980s the real estate world became less forgiving. For some investors the times were downright terrifying. All of a sudden there was the sudden change. Markets fluctuated area by area both as to volume of sales and prices. Different real estate categories rose or fell without any apparent linkage to each other. You could see in one market area the average single-family detached home rise in value by 40 per cent while in the exact same market area downtown condos slumped in value by 12 to 20 per cent (Vancouver 1990-1995).

The people who tried to play by the old rules found themselves playing someone else’s game. And most of the time they were handed their heads. Was it possible to avoid the dangers and yet at the same time prosper with the good stuff) Yes it was, but you had to put aside location, location, location, and instead you had to read the trends, position yourself as to the timing and then implement some new techniques.

To be successful real estate investors we must understand ourselves. That means we have to understand our investment objectives in relation to the risks we are willing and able to tolerate. But having done that we then must understand that aspect of ‘ourselves’ that is part of the New Consumer.

http://londonontariorealestatediagnosis.blogspot.com/2008/05/ozzie-jurock-why-i-will-always-buy-real.html

Recommended by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

The Canadian Funding Corporation Reports:

OTTAWA, April 8, 2009 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts increased to 154,700 units in March from 136,100 units in February, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Higher multiple starts in Ontario and Quebec were the main contributors to the rise in new construction activity in March,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “While the multiples segment experienced the largest increase, the overall boost in starts was broad based, encompassing the singles segment as well.”

Moishe Alexander, of the Canadian Funding Corp noted that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased 17 per cent to 127,900 units in March. Urban multiple starts increased 28.3 per cent to 81,500 units, while urban single starts moved up by 1.3 per cent to 46,400 units in March.

March’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 35 per cent in Ontario and by 23.3 per cent in Quebec. Urban starts declined by 17.3 per cent in British Columbia, by 7.9 per cent in Atlantic Canada, and by 7.5 per cent in the Prairies.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 26,800 units in March.

New home construction is now at a more sustainable level after having been exceptionally strong over the past 7 years, exceeding 200,000 units per year.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

For more information, please see:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2009/2009-04-08-0815.cfm

Likewise, the majority of renter households that intend to buy are between 25 and 44 years of age (46 per cent).

A large share of intenders will be repeat buyers

More than half (57 per cent) of purchase intenders will be repeat buyers. Indeed, buying intenders’ main motivation for purchasing a residence was the need for a larger/better residence (33 per cent). The second most popular response was to change from renting/build equity or to have a residence of their own (26 per cent).

The majority of purchase intenders that are first time buyers are between the ages of 25 and 34, with a household income between $40,000 to just under $60,000. As for repeat buyers who intend to purchase a home in 2008, the majority are between the ages of 35 and 44, with a household income over $100,000.

Close to half of intenders will plan to make a down payment of more than 20 per cent Close to half of households that intend to buy a home are planning to make a down payment of more than 20 per cent of the expected value of their purchase. The main source of down payment funds are household savings for 40 per cent of potential home buyers, while equity from the present/previous residence is also a popular option with 30 per cent.

The gap between the proportion of renters and owners intending to purchase a home in 2008 has narrowed compared to intentions reported in 2007. The majority of purchase intenders (53 per cent) are renter households compared to 60 per cent in 2007. In Montreal, close to two-thirds of households intending to purchase a home currently rent, while in Vancouver only 44 per cent of purchase intenders are renter households.

In five of the ten markets surveyed, households were asked more detailed questions regarding their purchasing intentions. Thus, the remainder of purchase intention results cover only the five centres listed: Halifax, Montréal,  Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver.

A larger share of households intend to buy single-detached homes and the majority intend to purchase a larger residence Among households who intend to buy a home in 2008, the largest share plan to buy a single-detached home (55 per cent). Also, a majority of intenders (67 per cent) plan to buy an existing home.

Just over a quarter of households who intend to purchase a home plan to purchase a condominium unit. Of those who intend to purchase a condominium, the majority are between the ages of 18 and 24 years. Vancouver has the largest proportion of condominium purchase intenders at 41 per cent this year.

The majority of households who intend to purchase a home plan to purchase a larger home (57 per cent) compared to their current residence, 20 per cent of households intend to purchase a smaller home, and 20 per cent intend to purchase a similar sized home compared to their current residence.

Across the five centres surveyed, 40 per cent of purchasers who bought a primary residence in 2007 were between 18 and 34 years of age with 23 per cent falling between the ages of 18 and 24 (up from 18 per cent in 2006) and 17 per cent between the ages of 25 and 34 (up from 15 per cent in 2006).

According to Moishe Alexander, more than 40 per cent of households who purchased a residence in 2007, were first time buyers, the same proportion as 2006.

For those who previously owned a home, the majority of households (74 per cent) purchased a home worth more than their previous residence while 13 per cent purchased a lower priced home. As well, the majority (62 per cent) of those who previously owned a home upgraded to a larger home compared to their previous one while 20 per cent downsized.

This move-up corresponds with the large proportion of households (33 per cent) who stated that they needed a larger residence as their main motivation for moving. A smaller proportion of respondents in 2007 (16 per cent) compared to 2006 (24 per cent) wanted a change from renting and to have an opportunity to build some equity.

Household Purchasers in 2007 – Seven Percent of Households Purchased a Home in 2007

Across the ten major centres surveyed seven per cent of all households in those centres indicated they bought a home last year, up from 6 per cent reported in 2006. The largest share of homebuyers was in Edmonton, Calgary, and St. John’s where 10 per cent of households purchased a primary residence in 2007. On the other hand, five per cent of households in Montréal bought a primary residence last year, an increase from four per cent in 2006.

In five of the ten markets surveyed, households were asked further questions regarding home purchases last year.

Thus, the remainder of household purchaser results cover only the five centres listed: Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver.

The majority of homebuyers opted for existing homes

Seven out of ten households that bought a home in 2007 opted for an existing home. On the other hand, 27 per cent of respondents purchased a newly built home, an increase from 23 per cent of respondents in 2006. More than half the households purchased a single-detached residence in 2007. The remaining homebuyers were split equally between purchasing semi-detached, row/townhouse, and apartment dwellings in 2007.

Condominiums are a popular choice amongst households between the ages of 55 and 64 years

The condominium lifestyle remains a popular choice amongst home purchasers, especially with households between 55 and 64 years of age. Over a quarter of respondents surveyed bought a condominium last year. The majority of home purchasers between the age of 55 to 64 bought a condominium last year. The share of households aged 65 and older that purchased a condo fell from 60 per cent in 2006 to 38 per cent in 2007.

Across the five centres, the largest share of households purchasing a condominium, was in Vancouver at 46 per cent.

Only 12 per cent of households in Halifax purchased a condominium last year.

Equity from sale of a home and savings were main source of down payment

As for how households paid for their new home last year, 40 per cent used the equity from their present/previous residence as their main source of down payment, while 30 per cent used some form of savings (this excludes RRSP and investments).

Renovation intentions are highest among owners of older homes. Fifty-one per cent of households living in homes built before 1920 intend to renovate in 2008.

In fact, households living in homes built prior to 1945 had the highest incidence of actual renovations in 2007, with 48 per cent of households renovating. Of those who intend to renovate in 2008, the older the home the higher the proportion of households performing maintenance and repairs. On the other hand, the younger the home the higher the proportion of households performing alterations and improvements.

A large portion of households intend to renovate so as to update, add value, or prepare to sell their home, according to CFC CEO, Moishe Alexander.

Across the five major centres, 67 per cent of households who intend to renovate this year, will do so to update, add value, or prepare to sell their home.

Twenty-one per cent of households intend to renovate this year because their dwelling needs repairs, while 19 per cent say that it needs maintenance.

Renovation intenders in Toronto plan to spend the most on renovations

When asked what the household expected to spend on their renovations, the average estimate across the five centres was $12,880. Households in Toronto expected to pay the most on average ($14,920), while households in Halifax expected to pay the least on average ($8,200).

Spending intentions on renovations were, on average, underestimated, in 2007 by $1,000. Households surveyed in 2007 expected to spend an average of $11,270, while in actuality spent an average of over $12,800 on renovations for 2007.

Toronto homeowners underestimated their renovations, on average, by over $4,000, while those in Vancouver were off by only $800.

Across the ten markets surveyed, close to half of all homeowners reported having an intention to undertake home renovations valued at $1,000 or more in 2008. The share of households that intend to renovate in 2008 is greater than the share of households that undertook renovations of $1,000 or more in 2007 (31 per cent1).

The share of households that intend to renovate in 2008 is highest in Winnipeg and St. John’s at 50 and 48 per cent, respectively. Québec had the lowest share of households that intend to renovate in 2008 at 35 per cent.

In five of the ten markets surveyed, households were asked more detailed questions about their intended renovations. Thus, the analysis of the survey results for renovation intentions focus on these five centres: Halifax, Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver.

Moishe Alexander says: A renovation intender is defined as a household that either commenced a renovation in 2008 or that intends to begin a renovation in 2008 and plans on spending more than $1,000 on the renovation.

Of those households who intend to renovate in 2008, more than half (55 per cent) had very high confidence that they would be renovating this year. Out of these households with high or very high probability of renovating this year, 2 out of 5 households intend to do some form of maintenance and repairs, while more than three quarters will undertake alterations and improvements, similar proportions to actual renovations completed in 2007.

Regionally, the share of households planning on undertaking maintenance and repairs was the highest in Halifax (48 per cent), while the share for alterations and improvements in Calgary was the highest at 85 per cent.

Only 13 per cent of households who intend to renovate felt that there was a low chance that they would start the work in 2008.

Homeowner households across the ten major centres surveyed spent an average of $12,800 on renovations in 2007, an increase of over $1,000 compared to the average spent in 2006. The highest average amount spent on renovations was Calgary at $15,600, an increase of $3,000 compared to 2006. The average amount spent of renovations was the lowest in Winnipeg at $7,900, down from an average of $9,100 in 2006.

A total of $19.7 billion was spent on renovations last year across the ten major centres, up from the estimated $17.3 billion in 2006. The largest share came from Toronto where close to $7.1 billion was spent in 2007. More than $3.6 billion was spent on renovations in Montréal.

People living in older homes tend to spend more on renovations. In 2007, an average of more than $17,000 was spent on renovations in homes built before 1920, while homeowners in homes built between 1971 and 1980 spent on average about $10,500.

Close to half of homeowner households spent as planned on renovations

Close to half (46 per cent) of renovating households reported that the cost of their renovation project was as budgeted. On the other hand, more than a third (38 per cent) of households went over budget.

Savings were the main form of payment by homeowner households for their renovations

Across the 10 centres surveyed, three quarters of households who undertook renovations in 2007 paid for the work from savings, a similar share to 2006, while 20 per cent used credit cards or a line of credit. Of the households that paid for the renovations from savings, on average, $11,900 was spent on the renovation, while those that used a credit card or a line of credit spent, on average, $13,500.